The State of the Spec Script Market

I get questions…

Oh, boy. Here are some numbers. They ain’t pretty.

Spec Script Deals By Year (1991–2023)

1991: 28
1992: 40
1993: 89
1994: 101
1995: 173
1996: 155
1997: 141
1998: 110
1999: 83
2000: 92
2001: 101
2002: 114
2003: 90
2004: 75
2005: 58
2006: 60
2007: 64
2008: 87
2009: 67
2010: 55
2011: 110
2012: 99
2013: 100
2014: 62
2015: 55
2016: 75
2017: 62
2018: 41
2019: 32
2020: 26
2021: 34
2022: 16
2023: 11

Note: These are *my* numbers based on reports in the trades and various resources which track the spec market. I only include deals I can verify. As I always note when I do the annual report:

Tracking spec script deals is not an exact science. To make the blog’s list, there almost always has to be some sort of article in the press verifying a deal, but even then that can get dicey because the term “spec script” is itself rather amorphous in meaning.

In the broadest terms, it applies to any deal made for a script written “speculatively,” that is for no fees, just the writer’s own sweat equity with the hope of making a sale. Seems simple enough, but there is a lot of gray area:

— Some deals get announced that are in effect handshake, no money arrangements.

— Some deals are by professional writers with a preexisting relationship with a production group or studio, so that a tacit agreement was in place for the project from the get-go, even if nothing official until the script comes in.

— Some deals are scripts that have been circulating for many months, even years in the process of being packaged, then finally get announced when the project receives a green light.

— Some deals are option arrangements for as little as $5–10K, not what we typically associate with spec script sales (i.e., six figures).

There is no way to determine by any objective standard the precise number of spec script deals in any given year. However, since I have been using the same sources of information and standards in tracking deals, it is possible to track trends as well as have at least some idea of what projects got set up in a twelve-month period.

There has been a downward trend since 2016. Granted, 2023 was impacted by the five-month long WGA strike, so that number of reported deals (11) is perhaps artificially low. However, here we are nearing the end of the 1st quarter 2024 … and to my knowledge, there have been zero spec script deals this year.

Why the moribund state of the spec market? There are several contributing factors:

• Contraction: There are fewer buyers. When Disney acquired 20th Century Fox, that reduced the number of legacy studios to five: Disney, Paramount, Sony, Universal, Warner Bros. Some mini-majors dropped from the scene either folding or through acquisition .
• Streaming: Four of the five legacy studios jumped off the cliff following Netflix into the streaming arena (only Sony steered away from that choice). None of those platforms is profitable. As a result, companies like Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are billions of dollars in debt which in turn limits their project acquisition dollars.
• Risk Aversion: This manifests itself in several ways. First, the studios are making fewer movies per year. Back in the late 80s into the mid-90s, companies like Disney produced and distributed 40+ movies per year. Now in most cases, their distribution slates are less than half that amount. Second, the C-suite suits have become addicted to pre-existing “content”: Sequels. Prequels. Remakes. Reboots. Biopics. Franchise. Tentpoles. Nostalgia. The conventional wisdom is it’s safer to produce “content” which is familiar to consumers. And for many years, that has proven to be a profitable business model.
• Books are hot: Fiction and nonfiction books are a hot item. Check out this recent Variety article: London Book Fair Attracts Hollywood Producers and Execs as Adaptation Craze Continues: ‘IP Supercharges the Conversation’. Best-selling books come with a built-in audience, but even titles with little to no audience can be appealing assuming they have a strong (read: marketable) story concept.
• Avoid Original Stories: At the other end of the story spectrum, there appears to be a general fear in acquiring and making movies featuring original stories. As one producer described them, “They are untested.” Again, why take the risk on an original story when they believe they can minimize their risk by making something “similar but different” to an existing property.

All of these interrelated dynamics have impacted the spec script market. However, there are some interesting developments afoot:

• Millennials and Gen-Z Want Original Movies and TV, Not Remakes, New Streaming Survey Says. “74 percent of millennials and Gen Zers prefer to watch original content rather than franchises or remakes.” Perhaps the “superhero fatigue” phenomenon is real and maybe extending to other types of movie and TV stories which studios have gone to time and time again.
• Universal Overtakes Disney as Highest-Grossing Studio at 2023 Box Office. Unlike Disney, which has relied on its Big Three properties (Marvel, Pixar, Lucas Films) for the last decade or so, Universal has gone another route. They make deals with filmmakers, like Jordan Peele and Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer). They do make original movies and last year, it paid off big time.
• Disney Shakeup: Sean Bailey Exits As President Of Walt Disney Motion Picture Studios, Searchlight’s David Greenbaum Takes Over & Also Will Run 20th. Greenbaum was the head of Searchlight, the outfit which got behind Poor Things, a wildly inventive film, does not set up for a sequel or franchise, and is about as original a movie as that word (original) can mean. Does this new hire mark a possible shift in business strategy opening the door for at least some original movies from the Mouse House?

So maybe … just maybe things are turning. And perhaps they may turn toward spec scripts. But as William Goldman famously said of the Hollywood film business, “Nobody knows anything.”

In other words … who knows.

Amidst all that doom and gloom, it is important to remember this: The value of a spec script extends beyond a potential deal. Yes, to sell a spec script or even option one is a desirable goal. But a spec script can do other things:

• If you are unrepped, writing spec scripts is the surest way to get repped. Check out my article: The Path of Least Resistance (to getting repped).
• A great spec script can get you in the room with producers and buyers. General meetings, pitch meetings, open writing assignments.
• A spec script is an asset. Maybe it doesn’t sell now, but circumstances change, so in a few years … maybe the time will be right.

Just this week, I interviewed one of my former students, Laura Stoltz. She wrote a script called “Last Resort” which was named to the 2023 Black List. Story summary:

When a grieving woman takes a trip to a posh, Icelandic resort designed to assist its guests with ending their lives, she meets people who finally force her to accept the things she cannot explain.

Guess what? It’s a dramedy. That’s right, a script which features suicide as a central narrative element also has a lot of humor in it.

The thing is, Laura knew when she took up the project … it likely won’t sell. That wasn’t her goal. Instead, she set out to write what she called a “voice piece,” a script which would convey her unique writer’s voice and personality. It worked. She made the Black List and has been getting meetings all over town.

In other words, even if a script doesn’t sell, it can be your calling card into the business.

To recap, the spec script market currently sucks … as far as deals go. But even so, writers are getting signed by managers and agents, then landing work based on original spec scripts.

Let me close with this quote from Dan Halsted, my first agent:

“If you write a great script, we will find you.”

Focus on the writing. Everything else will take care of itself.