2022 Spec Script Deals Analysis: Genres
By my count, Hollywood studios, production companies, and financiers acquired 16 spec scripts in 2022. During this week, I’ll be breaking…
By my count, Hollywood studios, production companies, and financiers acquired 16 spec scripts in 2022. During this week, I’ll be breaking down those numbers.
Today, we look at deals by genre. Some scripts are categorized as cross genres (e.g., Action Thriller, Comedy Drama). I count them in both categories.
Note: Genre designations are not scientific, so you have to understand these numbers are general.
2022 SPEC SCRIPT DEALS BY GENRE
Action — 8
Thriller — 7
Drama — 4
Comedy — 2
Family — 1
Fantasy — 1
First, let’s compare to 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.
2008 (88 deals)
COMEDY 41
ACTION 13
DRAMA 12
THRILLER 10
FANTASY 3
SCIENCE FICTION 3
ADVENTURE 2
DISASTER 2
FAMILY 1
HORROR 1
2009 (68 deals)
COMEDY 26
THRILLER 12
ACTION 11
DRAMA 7
SCIENCE FICTION 4
ROMANTIC COMEDY 3
FAMILY 1
FANTASY 1
HEIST 1
HORROR 1
MURDER MYSTERY 1
2010 (55 deals)
COMEDY 16
ACTION 14
THRILLER 10
SCIENCE FICTION 7
DRAMA 4
FAMILY 2
FANTASY 1
MYSTERY 1
2011 (110 deals)
ACTION 29
THRILLER 20
COMEDY 19
DRAMA 14
SCIENCE FICTION 13
HORROR 8
FAMILY 2
FAIRY TALE 1
HEIST 1
SUPERNATURAL 1
WESTERN 1
2012 (99 deals)
ACTION 27
THRILLER 20
COMEDY 20
SCIENCE FICTION 12
DRAMA 10
HORROR 9
SUPERNATURAL 1
2013 (100 deals)
THRILLER 25
ACTION 20
COMEDY 18
DRAMA 17
SCIENCE FICTION 13
HORROR 3
WESTERN 2
DISASTER 1
FAMILY 1
2014 (62 deals)
ACTION 17
COMEDY 12
DRAMA 10
SCIENCE FICTION 9
THRILLER 8
HORROR 5
FANTASY 2
2015 (55 deals)
DRAMA 17
ACTION 13
THRILLER 10
COMEDY 7
SCIENCE FICTION 7
FAMILY 1
2016 (75 deals)
DRAMA 24
COMEDY 18
THRILLER 13
ACTION 10
SCIENCE FICTION 8
WESTERN 2
2017 (61 deals)
DRAMA 16
SCIENCE FICTION 12
THRILLER 11
ACTION 10
COMEDY 7
HORROR 5
2018 (40 deals)
SCIENCE FICTION 10
COMEDY 9
DRAMA 9
HORROR 4
THRILLER 4
ACTION 3
FAMILY 1
2019 (32 deals)
COMEDY 10
THRILLER 9
HORROR 5
SCIENCE FICTION 4
ACTION 3
DRAMA 3
FAMILY 2
FANTASY 1
WESTERN 1
2020 (26 deals)
THRILLER 8
COMEDY 6
HORROR 4
SCIENCE FICTION 4
ACTION 2
DRAMA 1
HEIST 1
ROMANCE 1
WESTERN 1
2021 (34 deals)
ACTION 12
THRILLER 12
DRAMA 9
COMEDY 8
SCIENCE FICTION 3
HORROR 2
What to make of these numbers?
- A significant decrease in spec deals: 16 in 2022 compared to 34 in 2021, a a decline by over half.
- Action and Thriller continue to be the most popular genres.
- There were several high concept spec scripts set up in 2022 including Cut and Run, Galahad, Ending Things, Batshit, Fight Fast, and Honey Trapped.
But the main takeaway is something screenwriters must consider: The shrinking of the spec script market. A decade ago (2013), there were 100 spec deals. Now we’re down to 16. 2023 looks to be worse.
There are many contributing factors including the successive impact of the WGA v ATA standoff, COVID, the sale of 20th Century Fox to Disney leading to one less buyer, and this year the WGA strike.
But the single biggest reason why the spec script market appears to be on life-support is this: The studios, streamers, production companies, and financiers are all addicted to preexisting material. Novels, graphic novels, short stories, long-form nonfiction, video-games, comic books, real-life stories, remakes, reboots, prequels, sequels … the buyers prefer any type of IP (Intellectual Property) to spec scripts, especially those based on original stories.
I get it. Every movie is a risk. The suits want to minimize that risk. If a prospective project has some existing presence in the consumer marketplace or can be pitched to audiences as “based on a true story,” that can feel safer than an original project which, as a producer once said, he considers to be “untested.”
Will the spec script market ever bounce back? Who knows. But that doesn’t mean stop writing specs. On the contrary, someone attempting to break into the business as a screenwriter needs to be a prolific spec writer. While a great spec script may not sell or get optioned, it can get you a manager … who sends it out to producers and development execs … which results in general meetings … and that’s where relationships can emerge … which can lead to getting hired to write OWAs (Open Writing Assignments) … or open the door for you to pitch your own projects.
Then there are fellowship programs and screenwriting competitions like the Academy Nicholl Fellowships in Screenwriting, hosting websites like the Black List. The irony is, even with a moribund spec script market, there has never been more access to people who work in the industry who can say “yes” to you as a writer.
However, it is imperative for a writer to produce a great script: strong story concept, engaging characters, compelling plot, and a narrative that leaps up off the page and into the imagination of the reader.
In this market environment, your stories and storytelling chops must be readily apparent on the page.
As I noted, the 2023 spec script market is almost certainly going to set a new low in terms of deals.
Here’s hoping 2024 turns around even just a little bit.
Tomorrow: 2022 Spec Script Sales Analysis: Buyers.