2019 Spec Script Deals Analysis: Genres
By my count, Hollywood studios, production companies, and financiers acquired 32 spec scripts in 2019. During this week, I’ll be breaking…
By my count, Hollywood studios, production companies, and financiers acquired 32 spec scripts in 2019. During this week, I’ll be breaking down those numbers.
Today, we look at deals by genre. Some scripts are categorized as cross genres or sub-genres, so those are noted where relevant under their primary genre category.
Note: Genre designations are not scientific, so you have to understand these numbers are general.
2019 SPEC SCRIPT DEALS BY GENRE
Comedy — 10
Romantic — 3
Drama — 1
Thriller — 9
Supernatural — 2
Psychological — 1
Horror — 5
Science Fiction — 4
Action — 3
Heist — 1
Drama — 3
Sports — 1
Family — 2
Fantasy — 1
Western — 1
First, let’s compare to 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018.
2008 (88 deals)
COMEDY 41
ACTION 13
DRAMA 12
THRILLER 10
FANTASY 3
SCIENCE FICTION 3
ADVENTURE 2
DISASTER 2
FAMILY 1
HORROR 1
2009 (68 deals)
COMEDY 26
THRILLER 12
ACTION 11
DRAMA 7
SCIENCE FICTION 4
ROMANTIC COMEDY 3
FAMILY 1
FANTASY 1
HEIST 1
HORROR 1
MURDER MYSTERY 1
2010 (55 deals)
COMEDY 16
ACTION 14
THRILLER 10
SCIENCE FICTION 7
DRAMA 4
FAMILY 2
FANTASY 1
MYSTERY 1
2011 (110 deals)
ACTION 29
THRILLER 20
COMEDY 19
DRAMA 14
SCIENCE FICTION 13
HORROR 8
FAMILY 2
FAIRY TALE 1
HEIST 1
SUPERNATURAL 1
WESTERN 1
2012 (99 deals)
ACTION 27
THRILLER 20
COMEDY 20
SCIENCE FICTION 12
DRAMA 10
HORROR 9
SUPERNATURAL 1
2013 (100 deals)
THRILLER 25
ACTION 20
COMEDY 18
DRAMA 17
SCIENCE FICTION 13
HORROR 3
WESTERN 2
DISASTER 1
FAMILY 1
2014 (62 deals)
ACTION 17
COMEDY 12
DRAMA 10
SCIENCE FICTION 9
THRILLER 8
HORROR 5
FANTASY 2
2015 (55 deals)
DRAMA 17
ACTION 13
THRILLER 10
COMEDY 7
SCIENCE FICTION 7
FAMILY 1
2016 (75 deals)
DRAMA 24
COMEDY 18
THRILLER 13
ACTION 10
SCIENCE FICTION 8
WESTERN 2
2017 (61 deals)
DRAMA 16
SCIENCE FICTION 12
THRILLER 11
ACTION 10
COMEDY 7
HORROR 5
2018 (40 deals)
SCIENCE FICTION 10
COMEDY 9
DRAMA 9
HORROR 4
THRILLER 4
ACTION 3
FAMILY 1
Analysis
- The number of reported spec script deals declined for the 3rd straight year and replaced 2018 as the lowest number since 1992. There are three contributing factors for this, two of which I noted in the 2018 analysis:
(1) The major studios have an established pattern of producing the minimum amount of movies for the maximum amount of revenues. This is a plan they initiated during and after the 2007–2008 WGA work stoppage and after a decade, they’ve pretty much figured out those numbers. Fewer produced projects results in fewer spec script acquisitions. (2) Moreover, the studios — and to a somewhat lesser degree production companies and financiers — are obsessed with preexisting content. Sequels, prequels, reboots, remakes, anything which already exists which they can re-purpose… that’s what in their business model wheelhouse. It’s a challenge to set up original stories in this environment, let alone get it produced. Potential buyers have much more of a comfort level with pre-branded content as they believe it’s a safer bet in large part due to market awareness of the titles / subject matter in question.
The third is specifically tied to the war being waged between the WGA and the ATA. It figures that once writers ‘fired’ their agents, that would depress the number of spec deals because haven’t been representing as many spec scripts.
- Comedy, which for many years was the #1 genre in terms of spec script deals, returned to the top of the list in 2019. Of special note, the return to favor of Romantic Comedies in no small part due to the influence of Netflix.
The Big Question: Will the spec script market revive in 2020 and beyond? It’s hard to be bullish on that market when Hollywood producers and development executives refer to original spec scripts as “untested” stories, that’s how addicted to pre-existing content they are. And I confess I was wrong in my prediction last year — that there would be 55 spec script deals in 2019. I deserve to be cut some slack due to the WGA-ATA brouhaha.
As far as 2020 is concerned, all bets are off as there may very well be a work stoppage once the current WGA MBA agreement terminates on May 1.
I’d like to think there will be a rebound in the spec market, that at some point, audiences will tire of reboots and remakes, and yearn for original content. That’s the bottom line: The audience will have to drive a renewed interest on the part of the studios and production companies in original content.
Otherwise, we may be looking at yet another bleak year in the spec script market.